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Report on OpenAI Revenue Hits the Chips, Musk vs. Altman Day 2, Earnings Parade Heats Up 4/28/26

Squawk on the Street

Published: April 28, 2026
Duration: 43:10
Summary source: description
Last updated: Apr 28, 2026

Discusses openai, investing.

Summary

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with the AI Trade: Semiconductor stocks took a hit and pulled the Nasdaq down from a record high, in reaction to a report that said OpenAI recently missed its revenue and user targets. The Elon Musk-Sam Altman trial enters day two, with opening arguments set to begin. The anchors also explored …

Cramer and crew debate a WSJ report questioning OpenAI's revenue targets, weigh old-economy earnings from Coke, GM, and UPS, and track rising oil prices as the UAE exits OPEC.

Key takeaways

A Wall Street Journal report claiming OpenAI missed user and revenue targets rattled AI-adjacent stocks (Oracle, Nvidia, AMD), but OpenAI called the piece 'ridiculous' and CFO Sarah Fryer's recent public statements contradicted the narrative, highlighting the tension between media skepticism and insider confidence.
Old-economy blue chips (Coca-Cola, GM, Nucor) demonstrated resilience amid high oil prices and tariff uncertainty, with Coke near 10-year highs and Nucor benefiting from reduced Chinese steel imports—underscoring a quiet rotation into defensive and industrial names.
The Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman trial opened in Oakland with up to $134 billion in damages sought and potential testimony from Musk, Altman, and Satya Nadella, adding legal and governance risk to OpenAI's already scrutinized path toward profitability and IPO.

Why this matters

For B2B investors and enterprise technology buyers, the convergence of OpenAI revenue concerns, surging compute infrastructure commitments (Oracle, Coreweave, Related Digital), and a high-stakes legal battle over AI governance signals that the AI infrastructure buildout remains structurally intact but faces near-term credibility and profitability tests that will shape enterprise AI vendor selection and capital allocation strategies.

Strategic Intelligence Report▼

OpenAI Revenue Concerns, AI Infrastructure Stress-Testing, and Rotation Into Old Economy Names A Wall Street Journal report alleging that OpenAI missed internal targets for user growth and revenue triggered a broad selloff in AI-adjacent equities, pulling down Nvidia, AMD, Oracle, and ARM in pre-market trading. The development is most consequential for institutional investors with concentrated positions in AI infrastructure plays and for corporate leaders evaluating compute commitments tied to OpenAI's continued scaling.

The OpenAI Revenue Question

The Journal reported that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Fryer had privately expressed concern to other company leaders that the startup might be unable to fund future compute expenditures if revenue growth does not accelerate sufficiently. OpenAI publicly called the piece "ridiculous," stating the company is "totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can." The discussion notes that OpenAI raised $122 billion in what was described as the largest private fundraise on record, providing substantial near-term runway regardless of the revenue shortfall. The discussion raises a pointed counterargument: even if OpenAI were to falter as a customer, infrastructure providers such as Oracle, CoreWeave, and others have indicated they would simply redirect compute capacity to alternative buyers—Anthropic being the most frequently cited substitute. This substitution argument, the discussion notes, was conspicuously absent from the Journal's framing and would have materially changed its analytical weight. A secondary data point offered in rebuttal: OpenAI's Codex product—its enterprise-facing coding tool and a direct competitor to Anthropic's Claude Code—grew from 3 million to 4 million users in two weeks. The enterprise segment, where Anthropic has been considered the leader, is characterized as the more profitable line of business and the more meaningful metric for long-term viability than consumer chat growth.

Infrastructure Commitments and the Substitution Argument

Oracle's exposure to OpenAI is framed as the most visible public proxy for the relationship. Related Digital recently closed a $16 billion raise to build a data center for Oracle that will provide compute for OpenAI—a commitment the discussion treats as evidence of sophisticated institutional confidence in the underlying demand thesis. The broader point made is that component-level shortages across the AI supply chain—memory (Seagate, Western Digital), CPUs (ARM), and fabrication equipment (KLA)—suggest genuine demand pressure that a single customer's revenue miss does not negate. Nvidia's stock trajectory was cited as illustrative of the valuation risk independent of the Journal story: the stock moved from $195 to $200 over roughly a month, then from $200 to $218 in two days, a "parabolic" move that the discussion argues made a correction inevitable regardless of the catalyst. ARM holdings similarly rose approximately 30% over one month prior to the selloff.

The Musk v. Altman Trial

Opening arguments began in federal court in Oakland in the case brought by Elon Musk against Sam Altman and OpenAI. Musk is seeking up to $134 billion in damages, removal of Altman from leadership, and an unwind of OpenAI's recent corporate restructuring from nonprofit to for-profit. The original 26 claims have been reduced to two: breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Key witnesses expected to testify include Musk, Altman, OpenAI President Greg Brockman, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. A diary kept by Brockman describing his desire to exit the relationship with Musk has been identified as a significant piece of evidence. The trial is proceeding as an advisory jury proceeding, meaning the judge retains final authority on liability and remedies.

Old Economy Earnings and the Oil Overhang

Several blue-chip industrials and consumer staples reported results that the discussion characterizes as solid but insufficient to generate enthusiasm in a market rotating away from tech. Coca-Cola was highlighted as a standout, with management praised for consistent execution through commodity cycles, GLP-1 headwinds, and competitive pressure. The stock was noted to be near 10-year highs. GM raised its earnings-per-share guidance range to $11.50–$13.50 against consensus of $11–$13, though EV progress was described as lagging Tesla. UPS posted a 2.3% decline in U.S. domestic packaging revenue and offered a low-end outlook, with shares indicated down as much as 5%. The unifying constraint across old-economy names is oil, which was trading near $100 per barrel—close to the highest level since the cease-fire began—with retail gasoline just cents from a multi-year high. The discussion frames elevated energy costs as a structural headwind that makes any earnings beat in this environment "a miracle." The UAE's announced departure from OPEC next month adds further uncertainty to the supply picture. Nucor was singled out as a steel industry standout, with the discussion attributing its outperformance over Cleveland-Cliffs to lower union cost exposure, less auto-sector concentration, and a more diversified end-market mix that includes data center construction and oil and gas infrastructure.

Open Questions

The discussion leaves unresolved whether the Journal's characterization of OpenAI's internal financial concerns reflects a temporary growth-rate deceleration or a more structural revenue problem. It also flags that the AI infrastructure trade's resilience depends heavily on the substitution argument holding—that hyperscalers and alternative AI providers will absorb compute capacity if OpenAI pulls back—a thesis that has not yet been tested at scale. --- **Key takeaways:** - OpenAI's $122 billion raise provides near-term insulation from a revenue shortfall, but the CFO's reported internal concerns about compute affordability introduce a credibility question that will likely recur as the company approaches its anticipated IPO. - The enterprise coding segment (Codex vs. Claude Code) is emerging as the more financially material battleground than consumer chat, with Anthropic currently holding the perceived lead in profitability. - Infrastructure providers argue that compute demand is customer-agnostic—if OpenAI slows, Anthropic or other hyperscalers absorb capacity—a claim that, if true, decouples the infrastructure trade from any single AI company's performance. - Oil near $100/barrel is functioning as a broad earnings ceiling for industrials, consumer staples, and logistics companies, making guidance raises difficult and amplifying downside risk for energy-intensive businesses. - Parabolic moves in AI equities (ARM +30%, Nvidia $195→$218 in days) created technical vulnerability that any negative catalyst—including a disputed news report—was sufficient to trigger; the speed of intraday recovery suggests institutional buyers view dips as entry points rather than trend reversals.

Show notes

Themes

openai
investing

openai investing

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